Oil prices are expected to fall in 2017, but analysts say this will be offset by cheaper natural gas
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By Simon Tisdale | 12 April 2018 03:40:51 Oil prices may fall in the coming months, but the outlook for oil production remains positive.
Brent crude, the global benchmark, has already settled below $50 a barrel, down from its peak of $100 in July 2017.
A fall in oil prices will only boost demand and create a supply glut, said RBC Capital Markets analyst Daniel Pinto.
“The price of oil will not fall, but it will not go down,” he said.
Oil prices fell $2.30, or 2.7%, to $49.98 on Wednesday.
That’s down $1.18 from the close of the previous day, when Brent crude was $50.05 a barrel.
“I think it is unlikely that Brent will fall much further,” said Pinto, adding that it is too early to tell how long oil prices could fall.
“There are signs that prices could be able to bounce back.”
In June, Brent crude hit $52.80 a barrel in the US.
Pinto expects Brent to fall back to $52 in 2018, while the US is expected to get more oil from Saudi Arabia.
“We expect that we are not likely to see a rebound in prices,” he added.
However, Pinto sees a more favourable scenario for oil prices in the second half of the year.
“In the second quarter, prices are likely to recover,” he told the Financial Times.
“And that’s a good sign for Brent, because it could be the best quarter ever.”
A decline in oil demand will likely reduce oil demand, which will be in line with Brent.
Brent oil has been trending down since early March, but its price has stabilized at around $50 in recent weeks.
The US is still the world’s biggest producer of oil, with over 10 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude flowing through the country.
Brent is currently trading at around a $60 a barrel price.
The world’s top producer is China, with about 3.8 million bpd of crude.
In its latest quarterly report, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said that global oil demand would increase by more than 4 million bp in 2018.
However it said the supply shortfall was unlikely to be addressed by any major new shale projects, including those that have already been completed.
“Oil demand will remain low in 2018 and 2019,” said the Opec statement.
“This is due to a combination of weak supply growth and a low level of investment in new projects,” the OPC said.
By Simon Tisdale | 12 April 2018 03:40:51 Oil prices may fall in the coming months, but the outlook for…
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